Résumé
"The use of crime trend analysis, as well as other quantitative models and qualitative
analyses, to predict the future of crime has been used by some criminologists, futurists
and criminal justice policy makers as a means to anticipate future crime trends, in part so
that the scope and impact of crime can be lessened and even prevented in the coming
years.
However, there is currently a lack of synthesized knowledge of the research and
organizations that have undertaken crime forecasting. The purpose of this study is to
make a modest contribution to addressing this void by providing some initial empirical
inquiries into the literature, research, and analytical tools, as well as the individuals and
organizations that have developed forecasts of crime for the 21st Century."--Pages 4, 5.
Contenu
1. Executive summary -- 2. Introduction -- 3. Research objectives -- 4. Research design -- 5. Summary of research findings -- 5.1. Factors driving future crime trends -- 5.1.1. Demographic variables -- 5.1.2. Macro-economic factors -- 5.1.3. Technology -- 5.1.4. Globalization -- 5.1.5. Criminal justice responses -- 5.2. The future scope and nature of crime -- 5.2.1. The future scope of crime -- 5.2.2. The nature of property crime in the future -- 5.2.3. Emerging crime trends that will grow in the future -- 5.3. Future offenders and victims -- 5.3.1. The future impact of crime -- 6. Discussion and analysis --
6.1. Summary and analysis: methodological design --
6.2. Accuracy of past crime predictions --
6.3. International comparative analysis --
6.4. Replication of foreign research in Canada -- 7. Recommended future research --
7.1. Overview --
7.2. Conceptual policy research framework -- 8. List of references.