CBRN Terrorism: Assessing the Threat of CBRN Terrorism by Groups and Individuals in Canada and Worldwide

Project Title

The Effects of Terrorist Group Organization on their Behaviour and Vulnerability

Lead / Author

Carleton University

Relevant Dates

Report submitted January 2013.

Description

This study begins by noting that chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) terror incidents, while rare, are on the rise. The authors state that prior to 1980 there were just 50 CBRN terror incidents worldwide, with just eight being actual attacks, while in the 11 years since the 9/11 attacks there have been 550 incidents, with 82 resulting in actual attacks. The study notes that these low probability attacks have the potential to cause large-scale human and economic impact – be it through mass casualties, panic, or both – and argues that finding ways to effectively limit the risks of CBRN weapons falling into the hands of terrorists requires a better understanding of the groups and individuals who seek to use such unconventional weapons.

The research is based on what the authors present as the most comprehensive open-source dataset of CBRN events, along with a database on terrorist group organizational structure developed at Carleton University. The researchers examine patterns in recent CBRN incidents in Canada and abroad, seeking to answer questions such as why, and when, would a group choose to acquire and use CBRN weapons? What are the telltale signs of a hoax attack? What targets, CBRN agents and delivery devices represent the highest threat? Characteristics of the groups or individuals considered include motivations, such as nationalist, religious, left-wing, or right-wing; and organizational structures, such as bureaucratic or network-based.

Select Findings

In Canada and other high income countries, the authors find that mail-borne biological incidents are the most common type of attack, though these typically turn out to be hoaxes. The study emphasizes that while there may be no casualties, such incidents can cause panic and take resources away from other, more serious threats. The authors argue that incidents in the postal service will continue to be the largest and most common CBRN problem because of the simplicity and low likelihood of detection. The study also argues that examination of target type also sheds light on whether an incident will result in an attack. Specifically, the authors demonstrate that incidents – attempted acquisition, threat, possession, threat with possession and attack – targeting health care and abortion-related sites result in an attack 94% of the time. By contrast, they find that police and military targets are rarely selected in high income countries, and even when they are, they’re much less likely to result in an attack.

Based on assessments of group organizational structure in 176 incidents worldwide, the authors find that highly centralized bureaucratic groups are responsible for two-thirds (66%) of these incidents. More loosely organized groups account for only 5% of the 176. With respect to motivation, left-wing and nationalist groups are twice as likely to make a hoax as religious groups. At the same time, the authors find that religious groups are more able to successfully pull off a CBRN attack, including in high income countries like Canada, at a rate far greater than for other types of groups.