Tyler's Story Methodological Companion

Acronyms

ADHD

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

CPI

Crime Prevention Inventory

GPCSL

General Personality and Cognitive Social Learning theory

ICAP

Integrated Cognitive Antisocial Potential theory

MST

Multisystemic Therapy

NCPI

National Crime Prevention Inventory

PSIMS

Public Safety Information Management System

SNAP^®

Stop Now And Plan

YIP

Youth Inclusion Program

Introduction

This methodological companion is designed to provide additional context and information on the guiding frameworks, key assumptions, and calculations made in the 2026 Tyler's Story report.

The Tyler's Story report illustrates how an overwhelming collection of risk factors, including early-life experiences, can steer a young person down a pathway of continued justice involvement. ^{Footnote 1} The report shows how youth like Tyler could be diverted from continued criminal behaviour ^{Footnote 2} through programs that reduce or mitigate risk factors. It also illustrates the possible cost savings associated with the use of effective crime prevention programming.

This methodological companion begins by outlining the role of risk factors in Tyler's Story; specifically, how an understanding of these factors contributes to a better understanding of the criminal behaviour and crime prevention interventions that occur during the Story. It explores the frameworks that support the identification of risk factors in Tyler's Story. The companion also details the costing calculus, including the rationale for included and excluded costs, calculations and key assumptions made, and search parameters. It concludes with costing information for the three profiled crime prevention programs, cost-benefit insights, and data limitations.

Methodology

The Tyler's Story report is an updated version of a 2016 Public Safety Canada publication titled Tyler's Troubled Life. The updates were necessary to reflect the evolving Canadian crime and justice context. It was also an opportunity to integrate new data and insights observed since the original publication along with cost-benefit analyses for the crime prevention interventions. With these updates, Tyler's Story provides a compelling and relevant glimpse into the current landscape of youth crime in Canada, the factors that lead to it, and programs that may prevent it.

Risk factors and crime prevention

No single factor explains why some youth become justice-involved. An understanding of the range of factors that put youth at risk of criminal behaviour is important for the development of comprehensive and effective strategies to reduce crime; to enhance public safety; and to improve outcomes of those at-risk of justice involvement. The purpose of Tyler's story is to explore the complex risk factors for lifelong criminal involvement and highlight crime prevention strategies and programs that may have been useful to mitigate Tyler's risk of offending throughout his life.

Approaches to crime prevention

Among youth, there are three approaches to crime prevention that can be used depending on an individual's current risk level. Primary interventions are used to target situational and societal factors in early-life which may increase risk for criminal activity (for example, family dysfunction and low school achievement).

Secondary interventions are used for youth already displaying at-risk behaviours which may escalate to criminal behaviour if unaddressed (such as aggression and association with delinquent peers). Primary and secondary crime prevention approaches focus on early intervention, working to negate the risk of criminal offending before it happens. These interventions may be in the form of safety campaigns such as drug and alcohol prevention programs (Public Safety Canada, 2003; Battams et al., 2021).

Tertiary interventions, however, are implemented after the onset of criminal behaviour. They aim to reduce re-offending by targeting factors with known relationships to offending (including substance use and pro-criminal attitudes) (Public Safety Canada, 2003; Battams et al., 2021).

Aligning with the three approaches to youth crime prevention, relevant risk factors in Tyler's story are highlighted at each developmental life period to:

• demonstrate how early-life events impact Tyler's development and compound over time,
• identify timeframes where the use of primary and secondary interventions may have mitigated Tyler's risk of criminal behaviour, and
• isolate risk factors to target with tertiary intervention to reduce Tyler's likelihood of re-offending.

Risk factors are also aligned with the three crime prevention programs in the report, illustrating how each of these interventions might mitigate Tyler's risk. This approach is especially important for understanding how these interventions support youth like Tyler who are at risk of continued criminal behaviour and justice involvement.

Risk factors

Risk factors are negative influences in the lives of individuals or their community that can increase one's likelihood of criminal behaviour (Public Safety Canada, 2015). Risk factors for criminal involvement have been conceptualized differently in academic literature, depending on the theoretical framework of focus.

Tyler's story reflects the progression of developmental factors and life course events which contribute to his later offending behaviours. To better understand this progression, Farrington's Integrated Cognitive Antisocial Potential (ICAP) Theory was used to showcase how family background, social environment, and individual-level factors may explain the onset of criminal behaviour (Farrington, 2019).

The ICAP theory differentiates between early-life risk factors (long-term vulnerabilities increasing risk over time) and situational risk factors (short-term triggers increasing immediate risk), suggesting that a combination of these elements increases the likelihood of criminal behaviour (Farrington, 2019).

Early-life risk factors that are slow-changing depend largely on impulsiveness and the process of modeling and socialization such as having criminal family members or peers (Farrington, 2019). By contrast, situational risk factors are quick-changing and depend on motivation and situational influences such as being bored, angry, or the availability of victims (Farrington, 2019). To illustrate:

Early-life (long-term) risk factors include:

• Neglectful and abusive parenting
• Financial instability
• Low school achievement
• Association with delinquent peers

Situational (short-term) risk factors include:

• Lack of supervision
• Alcohol/substance use
• Peer pressure
• Impulsivity

Recent findings from a systematic review have further supported Farrington's ICAP theory, highlighting how early-life and situational factors can work concurrently to increase risk of later offending (Ayano et al., 2024). These risk factors, if identified in early-life, may be resolved with early intervention (for example, primary or secondary interventions) that circumvent criminal behaviour altogether. However, once an individual engages in criminal behaviour, tertiary crime prevention strategies are needed to reduce the likelihood of re-offending.

Aligning with the onset of criminal behaviour, Tyler's story transitions to a criminological framework of offending to better understand the risk factors involved. By adopting a criminological perspective centered on criminogenic risk factors, it allows for a more precise identification of key areas to target in treatment and intervention efforts. The "Central Eight" model – an evidence-based rehabilitative model within Bonta and Andrew's General Personality and Cognitive Social Learning (GPCSL) theory – outlines eight broad risk factors that have demonstrated the strongest relationship to recurring criminal behaviour (Andrews et al., 1990; Andrews et al., 2006; Bonta and Andrews, 2024). The Central Eight risk factors are summarized as:

1. Antisocial history: early age at first offence, previous charges, incarcerations, weak self-control, pleasure seeking
2. Personality: aggression, anger, impulsivity, and poor emotional regulation
3. Attitudes/Cognitions: attitudes supportive of crime; criminally-oriented thinking
4. Peers/Associates: close association with antisocial and/or criminal peers; social support for crime
5. Family: disruption in the home, inconsistent parental supervision, adverse childhood experiences (like neglect and abuse)
6. Education/Employment: low levels of performance and engagement in school and/or work
7. Leisure/Recreation: inappropriate use of "free time" (for example, lack of structured activities, lack of positive recreational activities or hobbies, using "free time" to engage in delinquency and/or crime)
8. Substance use: misuse of alcohol and/or other drugs

Taken together, and as demonstrated in Tyler's Story, the risk factors showcased in Farrington's ICAP theory and Bonta and Andrews "Central Eight" theory, show considerable overlap. They can be used together to offer a holistic representation of risk. While not exhaustive, the inter-relatedness of these risk factors demonstrate "why" and "how" Tyler's life trajectory resulted in a criminal justice-involvement, and identify a number of risk factors that can be targeted through crime prevention reduction programs.

Strengths and protective factors

Strengths is a general term referring to positive aspects of a person's life. Protective factors, in turn, are specific strengths that can reduce the likelihood of criminal behaviour (or continued criminal behaviour) by counterbalancing and reducing a person's overall level of risk (Jones et al., 2016). Examples can be internal (like positive coping skills) or external (such as having a strong and prosocial support network).

This report acknowledges the critical importance of protective factors in understanding and reducing the risk of criminal behaviour among youth. If a youth has a large collection of risk factors but many protective factors, that youth's risk of negative outcomes is reduced. This report does not identify the protective factors in Tyler's life because the primary focus of Tyler's Story is to illustrate the overwhelming burden of many risk factors and the associated costs. As such, the focus is on risk factors by design.

Costing calculus

Tyler's experiences are used to highlight the most common risk factors that affect Canadian youth who become involved in crime. His story also provides a picture of the potential costs associated with these experiences, ranging from the cost of an emergency room visit to the cost of a federal prison sentence.

Costing rationale

Tyler represents a justice-involved youth in Canada. The report reflects one of many possible outcomes commonly experienced by justice-involved youth. It also highlights the costs associated with Tyler's experiences to support a better understanding of the economic impacts of crime on the Canadian socioeconomic system, and potential cost saving opportunities.

Understanding the economic impacts of crime allows researchers to evaluate the cost-benefit ratios of crime prevention programs. It also supports policymakers in making informed decisions about resource allocation.

Putting a dollar figure on the costs of crime provides a metric to compare the financial burden of criminal involvement to the investment in crime prevention programming.

The cost estimates considered in Tyler's story included only the tangible (direct) costs of crime, including criminal justice, health care, and social services costs. The intangible (indirect) costs due to pain and suffering, decreased quality of life, and psychological distress were not included in the estimates due to a lack of available data. All figures were, at best, an underestimation of the true costs of crime to government and society.

The tangible costs associated with Tyler's story were:

• Criminal justice system costs: costs of delivering police services, court services, prosecution services, legal aid and correctional services, and Criminal Code Review Boards.^{Footnote 3}
• Social services and medical costs: operating costs of social services, foster care, special education, psychological services, and medical costs.

In addition, this report also calculated the participant cost for three interventions to illustrate potential cost savings by investing in crime prevention programs at critical points in Tyler's life. These interventions include Stop Now And Plan (SNAP^®), the Youth Inclusion Program (YIP), and Multisystemic therapy (MST).

Costing method

A search of the Crime Prevention Inventory (CPI) – a database of programs funded under the National Crime Prevention Strategy (NCPS) – was conducted to identify funded programs that had been evaluated, and which included a cost per participant. The initial search revealed 13 records for SNAP^® and 14 records for YIP that were funded by Public Safety Canada between 2008 and 2019. Of those records, 5 SNAP^® interventions and 5 YIP interventions included cost per participant data. This report used the available data in these records to calculate the average cost per participant for SNAP^® and YIP. The average cost of YIP was calculated based on 4 out of the 5 available interventions; the excluded intervention was deemed an outlier because its cost per participant was approximately half the value of the 4 other interventions. There were 0 records for MST. As a result, the cost per participant for MST was based on a cost analysis from the Final Evaluation Summary of the Multisystemic Therapy Program (2015), published by Public Safety Canada.

The results of the CPI search were validated by an additional search through program administrative data in the Public Safety Information Management System (PSIMS). No additional results were found.

After adjusting for inflation, the estimated average participant costs of the interventions were:

• $20,615 for SNAP^®
• $9,519 for YIP
• $29,745 for MST

Calculations and assumptions

Costing exercise

This report used an accounting-style costing methodology to calculate the costs of Tyler's experiences. This approach is consistent with the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat's Guide to costing tool. Criminogenic events, child protection services, educational supports, and other prototypical incidents in Tyler's youth were ascribed costs in 2025 Canadian dollars.

To estimate these individual story element costs, the report used a technique that adjusted data from similar past studies to fit Tyler's situation, considering factors like how long, severe, or frequent each cost element was. Where similar costs were not available, new ones were obtained by researching the costs of a story element or by contacting experts in the field (for instance, school administrators, children's service workers, and psychological service providers). To avoid extreme values, the report used conservative estimates. Whenever possible, data were taken from Canadian sources, and the most recent data were prioritized.

The report estimated the cost of delivering police services, court services, prosecution services, and Criminal Code Review Boards. It also estimated costs related to correctional services and offence types for youth and adults, respectively. These included violent crimes, property crimes, auto theft, drug offences, and other Criminal Code offences. The potential costs associated with Tyler's custodial sentences accounted for his expected criminal justice system trajectory, including but not limited to, factors such as security classification, type and duration of custody, and release into the community. Time served in remand and presentence were assumed in the overall sentence time. Tyler's expected trajectory reflected available data on average incarceration experiences in Canada.

Cost-benefit analysis

Using the tangible costs associated with Tyler's story and the participant costs of the interventions, a cost-benefit analysis (Jayaratne, 2013; McIntosh and Li, 2012; Stobierski, 2013) estimated potential cost savings had interventions been delivered at various life periods in Tyler's story. The analysis was done in three steps:

• Estimated cost for each life period: The proposed interventions in Tyler's story would have happened at three life periods: ages 10, 13, and 17. The estimated costs that Tyler would have incurred at each of these life periods were calculated by finding the sum of all costs (including Tyler's direct criminal justice system, social services, and medical costs) in his life up until that point in the story.
• Calculated costs saved: The costs saved represents the costs that would have likely been saved after each life period if he had not undergone an intervention, minus the cost of the intervention itself. For example, if Tyler had participated in SNAP^® at age 10, the costs saved would include all expenses that occurred after age 10 in his story, minus the cost of SNAP^®. The costs saved with each intervention was estimated with the following formula, where j represents the life period (like age) during which Tyler could have undergone the intervention, and where i represents the type of intervention (for example, SNAP^®, YIP, or MST):

Costs saved = sum of Tyler's expenses after j life period – the cost of i intervention

• Determining cost-benefit ratio: a cost-benefit ratio was calculated to represent the amount saved given every dollar spent on an intervention for Tyler. To this end, the sum of the costs Tyler would have incurred after j life period if he had not undergone an intervention was divided by the cost of i intervention. The formula is as follows:

Cost-benefit ratio = sum of Tyler's expenses after j life period / cost of the i intervention

A cost-benefit ratio can indicate a gain, a loss, or equality. A ratio of 1 indicates that the costs and benefits are equal. A ratio greater than 1 indicates that the benefits exceed the costs, while a ratio less than 1 shows that the costs exceed the benefits.

Inflation calculations

All costs (such as crime costs and intervention costs) were adjusted to 2025 Canadian dollars (as of April 2025) using the Bank of Canada Inflation Calculator. This calculator used monthly consumer price index data from 1914 to the present to show changes in the cost of a fixed "basket" of consumer purchases. This report acknowledges that the consumer price index is not a true cost-of-living index and is therefore subject to measurement bias.

Limits

Data limitations

Data limitations are the greatest challenge in costing studies (Li, 2023). A lack of publicly-available data across topics and jurisdictions limits the possibilities and accuracy of the cost calculus. For example, although national estimates are produced where possible, in some cases data were not available for all provinces and territories.

One limitation of the report is the absence of current research on specific costing elements. Examples of these costing elements include offence types (for example, theft under $5,000, damage to property), police calls for service, and courts data (like appearances).

While the cost-benefit analyses may have shown greater savings for one intervention over another (such as YIP over MST), these are best-case scenario estimates that assume the intervention was completely effective and Tyler ceased any future criminal behaviour after treatment. In reality, it is possible that the program would not be entirely effective, and that Tyler might continue some of his criminal activity after the intervention.

Evaluations of these programs that assess delinquency and criminal behaviour before and after the intervention have been implemented, comparing changes in criminal behaviour with changes observed from other types of interventions. This research has demonstrated that these interventions decrease the number of youth that engage in further criminal behaviour after the intervention. Yet there is almost always a portion of the intervention participants that continue their criminal involvement after the intervention (Burke and Loeber, 2016; Laliberte, 2015; Public Safety Canada, 2021; van der Stouwe et al., 2014). Therefore, these cost-saving estimates only offer a best-case scenario illustration of the potential cost savings if Tyler had received the appropriate and effective intervention and ceased any further criminal behaviour.

Intangible costs of crime

As noted earlier, the intangible costs of crime, such as emotional distress and loss of quality of life, are excluded from this iteration of Tyler's Story. This is largely due to the challenges in accurately measuring these subjective elements. The inconsistency in estimates and the complexity they add to the analysis can lead to unreliable results. By focusing on tangible costs, the report ensures more clarity and actionable insights for policymakers.

Conclusion

In summary, this methodological companion document provides detailed insights into the guiding frameworks, key assumptions, and calculations that inform Tyler's Story. By further examining the inter-relatedness of developmental and criminogenic risk factors in the onset of criminal behaviour and treatment, this companion enhances the reader's understanding of "why" and "how" youth in Canada may become justice-involved. Additionally, by elaborating on the cost of crime analysis, it highlights the financial implications of criminal behaviour overall. This companion document, and the Tyler's Story report, contributes to the larger conversation about the value of investments in early and effective crime prevention programs for at-risk youth.

Annex A: Cost Estimates

Annex B: Cost Elements

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